Why We Are Going To Win

(Submitted via email from my Friend "Oz")

Dan,
Despite the national polls having the race “tied”, I have a lot of confidence that we are going to win. Here's why:

*Palin is a risk. I believe the choice indicates McCain and his camp know they are behind and they are hoping the enthusiasm created by her will cary them to victory in 2 months. But that will not happen. The media is chipping away at that veneer very quickly and people are already starting to see who she is. Have you seen the video yet where she claims God wants us to drill in Alaska? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhs-Faxi55o

*McCain has adopted the message of CHANGE. That is crazy talk for the incumbent party. Some still believe McCain is a maverick but those people would have voted for him anyway.*Both the maverick message and the choice of Palin will fire up his base, but it won't move anyone from the middle and it may even alienate some who wanted to vote for McCain.

*Almost all of the speakers at the Republican Convention ripped the Dems but didn't offer any substance. Again, this fired up the people who already agree with them but anyone watching the convention looking for a reason to vote for McCain found nothing. Where does he go from here? His Change message and the excitement of Palin will fade. All he has left are his war record and the surge. And the racist vote. McCain’s strongest message - experience - went out the window with Palin.

*McCain and the Bush administration are piggybacking on the Dems ideas:
1) Climate change and alternative energy are 2 things the republicans used to rail against. Now, they are all for them.
2) The republicans have given Barack hell for wanting to sit down with our perceived enemies. Now, the republicans have sat down with both Iran and North Korea.
3) Barack has been criticized for wanting to reduce troop levels. Now, Bush has said that 8,000 troops will be brought home by the end of the year.
4) Republican Change! Change! Change! = Bullsh*t! Bullsh*t! Bullsh*t! They have left themselves completely vulnerable to exposure. Barack and Biden should go for the jugular - so should we.
5) We need to unify Washington! Right. That is what Bush said too but it is more divided than 8 years ago. And the main theme to all of the major speeches at the republican convention was simply "the democrats suck!" That is divisive.
6) The republicans railed against Barack for not being qualified and for being too much of a celebrity with no substance. Palin is worse on both counts.

*Barack is starting to talk tougher. He said in an interview two days ago that there will be a sense of urgency for the last two months and that by the time November 4 is here, "the contrasts will be clear". And yesterday, he was absolutely correct when he said "You can dress a pig up in lipstick, but at the end of the day it's still a pig." He is starting to call their faux solutions to the floor - and we should too.

*Barack, in that same interview two days ago, talked about simplifying his message. About freaking time!

*Polls don't take a fair samples of the voters. The voters who registered recently - the young ones who are going to vote predominantly for Obama - are not on pollsters call lists. Also, the youngsters who only use a cell phone are not on those lists.

*And lastly and idea: I think what Barack should do is to video tape a number of short (2-3 minute) videos on a variety of hot topics - Economy, foreign policy, education, alternative energy, etc. - that are clear, specific and concise. The vids would spread like fire and, since they are so short, fit well with our busy, short attention span lives.

I am not comfortable but I am confident.
I feel if we win the debates, we will win in a landslide.

Oz